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2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 03 Jan 2014, 18:43
by knarf
This is a prediction and pick'em game with winner determined in early February, 2015 by the actual US Domestic Box Office Gross totals as determined by boxofficemojo.com

To play, PM your entry to me by 1/23/14 11:59pm eastern time.

Step 1 - Pick one 2014 movie from each of the 11 lines below:

Captain America: The Winter Soldier vs. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
I, Frankenstein vs. Dracula Untold
X-Men: Days of Future Past vs. Guardians of the Galaxy
How to Train Your Dragon 2 vs. Night at the Museum 3
Into the Woods vs. Maleficent
Exodus vs. Noah
Fury vs. Monuments Men
The Hobbit: There and Back Again vs. Transformers: Age of Extinction
Dolphin Tale 2 vs. Planes: Fire & Rescue vs. Muppets Most Wanted
Horrible Bosses 2 vs. Dumb and Dumber To vs. 22 Jump Street
Pompeii vs. Hercules vs. 300: Rise of an Empire

Step 2 - Pick 5 more 2014 releases (release date 1/24/14 to 12/31/14) that are NOT named in Steps 1 or 3

Step 3 - Tiebreaker: Domestic Box Office Gross of Hunger Games: Mockingjay, part 1

Deadline: Jan 23rd

We'll use boxofficemojo.com's Domestic Box Office Total for each movie at the end of January 2015, so we count the box office receipts in January 2015 until boxofficemojo.com puts up the receipts for the week that includes January 29th in it.

Winners:
Overall Winner - Person with highest total box office of their 16 movies
Pick'Em Champ - Person with most number of top choices for Step 1
Scout - Person with highest total box office of their 5 Step 2 movies
Marksman - Person whose Step 3 is closest to the actual gross

Ties in the first 3 categories will be broken by the tiebreaker (Step 3)

Remember, your Step 2 entries can't use any movie listed above. I'll post mine after the deadline, but before I open any PM's.

Re: 2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 10 Jan 2014, 14:20
by knarf
No entries yet - less than two weeks to go.

Re: 2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 11 Jan 2014, 03:05
by F.N.G.
sent

Re: 2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 12 Jan 2014, 07:06
by knarf
Entries received:

knarf
F.N.G.
Midrats

Re: 2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 13 Jan 2014, 06:29
by knarf
Entries received:

knarf
F.N.G.
Midrats
Middle

Re: 2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 14 Jan 2014, 06:29
by knarf
Entries received:

knarf
F.N.G.
Midrats
Middle
Scruluce

Re: 2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 16 Jan 2014, 19:32
by knarf
Only a week left to enter.

Re: 2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 20 Jan 2014, 07:14
by knarf
About 3 1/2 days left to enter.

Re: 2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 23 Jan 2014, 06:43
by knarf
About 14 hours left...

Re: 2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 23 Jan 2014, 21:04
by knarf
Time's up. Here's my entry:

The Amazing Spider-Man 2
I, Frankenstein
X-Men: Days of Future Past
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Maleficent
Noah
Fury
Transformers: Age of Extinction
Muppets Most Wanted
22 Jump Street
Hercules

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Godzilla
Gone Girl
Heaven is For Real
The LEGO Movie

$420,420,420

Re: 2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 23 Jan 2014, 21:19
by knarf
Click on the image to see it clearer.

Re: 2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 23 Jan 2014, 21:47
by knarf
Step 1:
Captain America: TWS: 3         Amazing Spider-Man 2: 2
I, Frankenstein: 4              Dracula Untold: 1
X-Men: Days of Future Past: 5   Guardians of the Galaxy: 0
How to Train Your Dragon 2: 5   Night at the Museum 3: 0
Maleficent: 4                   Into the Woods: 1
Noah: 4                         Exodus: 1
Fury: 3                         Monuments Men: 2
Transformers: AoE: 3            The Hobbit: T&BA: 2        
Muppets Most Wanted: 4          Planes: Fire & Rescue: 1     Dolphin Tale 2: 0
Dumb and Dumber To: 2           22 Jump Street: 2            Horrible Bosses 2: 1
300: Rise of an Empire: 3       Hercules: 2                  Pompeii: 0

Step 2: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes: 5
        Godzilla: 4
        Rio 2: 3
        Edge of Tomorrow: 2
        Robocop: 2
        Sin City: A Dame to Kill For: 2
        The Lego Movie: 2
        Gone Girl: 1
        Heaven is For Real: 1
        Interstellar: 1
        Jersey Boys: 1
        Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: 1

Step 3: $412M-$425M: 3
        $471M-$479M: 2


So X-Men/Guardians and Dragon 2/Museum 3 don't matter for Step 1, and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes has no effect on Step 2.

Re: 2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 24 Oct 2014, 10:05
by knarf
Update:

Step 1 - Pick'em Champ

Captain America: The Winter Soldier beat The Amazing Spider-Man 2 by about $57 million.

Dracula Untold is still in theaters, but has already passed I, Frankenstein by $24 million.

Guardians of the Galaxy beat X-Men: Days of Future Past by about $95 million, but we all picked X-Men.

Monuments Men is about $47 million ahead of Fury

Planes: Fire & Rescue has beat Muppets Most Wanted by $8 million so far, and is $11 million ahead of Dolphin Tale 2.

300: Rise of an Empire beat Pompeii by $83 million, and is $24 million ahead of Hercules, which is nearly done.

These matchups all still have unreleased movies involved:
How to Train Your Dragon 2 vs. Night at the Museum 3
Into the Woods vs. Maleficent
Exodus vs. Noah
The Hobbit: There and Back Again vs. Transformers: Age of Extinction
Horrible Bosses 2 vs. Dumb and Dumber To vs. 22 Jump Street

So with 3 matches decided, our current scores are:
Scruluce 2-1
Middle 1-2
Midrats 1-2
F.N.G. 0-3
knarf 0-3

Step 2 - Scout
Currently the totals are:
$869,697,545 - knarf
$830,420,444 - F.N.G.
$727,536,024 - Midrats
$612,873,761 - Scruluce
$498,646,144 - Middle

We all have a little more coming in from Dawn of the Planet of the Apes and one other currently in theaters or yet to be released. My $39 million lead over F.N.G. should hold up as Gone Girl is currently outperforming Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. Sin City: A Dame to Kill For is about finished for Midrats and Scruluce. Middle still has Interstellar left, but it's not likely to make up the $370 million to take the lead.


Step 3 - Marksman
Tiebreaker: Domestic Box Office Gross of Hunger Games: Mockingjay, part 1
Can't tell yet.

Overall Winner
Right now I have the lead by $5 million lead over F.N.G., with the Gone Girl/TMNT difference I mentioned above. We both still have Fury going as our only other real earner.

Midrats is about $488 million off the lead, with The Hobbit 3 and Dumb & Dumber To yet to be released (plus Fury). Scruluce has the same two unreleased, plus Dracula Untold earning, but not Fury. He's currently $35 million behind Midrats.

Middle is $800 million off the lead, but still has Interstellar, Into the Woods, Exodus, and Horrible Bosses 2 to be released.

Re: 2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 31 Dec 2014, 11:09
by knarf
Update:

Step 1 - Pick'em Champ

Captain America: The Winter Soldier beat The Amazing Spider-Man 2 by about $57 million.

Dracula Untold beat I, Frankenstein by about $36 million.

Guardians of the Galaxy beat X-Men: Days of Future Past by about $95 million, but we all picked X-Men.

Fury has passed Monuments Men by about $6 million and is still earning a bit.

Planes: Fire & Rescue beat Muppets Most Wanted by $8 million, and it beat Dolphin Tale 2 by $17 million.

300: Rise of an Empire beat Pompeii by $83 million, and it beat Hercules by $34 million.

Maleficent ($241M) should hold off Into the Woods ($52M so far).

22 Jump Street ($191M) should hold off Horrible Bosses 2 ($50M so far) and Dumb and Dumber To ($84M so far).

How to Train Your Dragon 2 ($177M) will probably hold off Night at the Museum 3 ($59M so far), but we all picked Dragon anyway.

And these matchups might still be up for grabs still:
Noah ($101M) vs. Exodus ($53M so far).
Transformers: Age of Extinction ($245M) vs The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies ($175M so far).

So with 6 of 11 matches decided, our current scores are:
Scruluce 4-2
F.N.G. 2-4
Midrats 2-4
knarf 1-5
Middle 1-5

It looks like Scruluce has the lead locked up, but F.N.G. can tie if Transformers and Jump Street hang on (and F.N.G. has the best shot at the tie-breaker). Technically Middle could tie if Into the Woods and Horrible Bosses suddenly started earning big, and if Transformers holds on (but Scruluce would probably win that tie-breaker anyway).

Step 2 - Scout
Currently the totals are:
$924,444,826 - knarf
$832,171,103 - F.N.G.
$727,787,167 - Midrats
$676,977,789 - Middle
$613,124,904 - Scruluce

Looks like I've got this one. Everything is done except for Gone Girl (mine) and Interstellar (Middle's).

Step 3 - Marksman
Tiebreaker: Domestic Box Office Gross of Hunger Games: Mockingjay, part 1
Right now it looks like it will under perform ($309M so far) all of our guesses, so F.N.G. has the best shot with the lowest guess of $412M. After him I'm at $420M and Scruluce is at $425M.

Overall Winner
$2,544,983,316 - knarf
$2,486,104,983 - F.N.G.
$2,177,701,686 - Midrats
$2,100,466,468 - Scruluce
$1,919,381,729 - Middle

Looks like this one is mine too. Gone Girl will get me a bit more ahead of F.N.G., and the remaining income from The Hobbit and Dumb and Dumber To probably won't be enough for Midrats to catch me.

Re: 2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 20 Jan 2015, 21:39
by Scruluce
Hobbit ($245.6 M) passed Transformers ($245.4 M)
I have to concede the loss of Dumb & Dumber To

Re: 2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 26 Jan 2015, 14:29
by knarf
Looks like we can call this one:

Step 1 - Pick'em Champ

Captain America: The Winter Soldier beat The Amazing Spider-Man 2 by about $57 million.

Dracula Untold beat I, Frankenstein by about $36 million.

Guardians of the Galaxy beat X-Men: Days of Future Past by about $95 million, but we all picked X-Men.

Fury beat passed Monuments Men by almost $8 million.

Planes: Fire & Rescue beat Muppets Most Wanted by $8 million, and it beat Dolphin Tale 2 by $17 million.

300: Rise of an Empire beat Pompeii by $83 million, and it beat Hercules by $34 million.

Maleficent ($241M) should hold off Into the Woods ($121M so far).

22 Jump Street ($191M) should hold off Horrible Bosses 2 ($54M so far) and Dumb and Dumber To ($86M so far).

How to Train Your Dragon 2 ($177M) should hold off Night at the Museum 3 ($108M so far), but we all picked Dragon anyway.

Noah ($101M) should hold off Exodus ($64M so far).

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies ($249M so far) passed Transformers: Age of Extinction ($245M).

Results
Scruluce 8-3
Midrats 7-4
F.N.G. 6-5
knarf 5-6
Middle 2-9

Congrats Scruluce!

Re: 2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 27 Jan 2015, 00:20
by Scruluce
Pick'em Champ... I'll take it. Lets see if I can defend that title... maybe even dethrone knarf of one of the others :mishchief:

Re: 2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 30 Jan 2015, 13:17
by knarf
Here are the rest of the results:

Step 2 - Scout
$926,054,180 - knarf
$832,171,103 - F.N.G.
$727,787,167 - Midrats
$685,362,787 - Middle
$613,124,904 - Scruluce

Step 3 - Marksman
Tiebreaker: Domestic Box Office Gross of Hunger Games: Mockingjay, part 1
Final total: $334,577,672
              GUESS       DIFFERNCE
F.N.G.    $412,868,222	 $78,290,550
knarf	  $420,420,420	 $85,842,748
Scruluce  $425,000,000	 $90,422,328
Middle	  $471,000,000	$136,422,328
Midrats	  $479,366,543	$144,788,871
Congrats F.N.G.!

Overall Winner
$2,547,704,916 - knarf
$2,487,217,229 - F.N.G.
$2,339,689,615 - Midrats
$2,261,342,151 - Scruluce
$2,063,330,342 - Middle

Thanks for playing!

Re: 2014 Box Office Prediction Game - Deadline 1/23/14

Posted: 30 Jan 2015, 14:56
by Steel Frog
Congrats, knarf!

And glad I didn't play; I would have been embarrassingly bad at this.