Page 1 of 3

How long has DVD got?

Posted: 09 Aug 2006, 00:33
by Impman
Just when we thought that DVD was the new video, and the VHS was dead, I have been hearing a lot about the new technology, that will in effect send the current DVD the same way as the VHS.

It's something called HDVD as far as I know, may be someone can confirm that, and it hold 4 times as much information as the current DVD's with a much higher quality. There is also the BlueRay DVD technology.

So how long will it be before this is going to replace the DVD as we know it?

Posted: 09 Aug 2006, 07:01
by Mr.StayPuft
bah, HD and BluRay won't make regular dvds obsolete in the same way DVD did to VHS. HD-DVD players can play current DVDs, and an HD disc can actually hold both formats (what is now considered "regular" dvd and HD) so it can used in any dvd player. Although as far as I can tell that is not a standard (I have no sources on this, just remembering stuff I've read, trust my memory at your own risk). I'm not too interested in HD-DVD myself, as it hardly matters with my tv, but I do hope the smaller HD cases will become a new standard.

Posted: 09 Aug 2006, 23:26
by Impman
The thing is though we all thought that VHS was well established, and it would never be overtaken by DVD. But Blockbuster in my home town have adopted a policy of only having DVD's for rent.
The price crash on the DVD players has made sure that 60% of homes now has at least 1 DVD player.
All that needs to happen is the price of HD-DVD and Blue Ray DVD players to come down, for the current DVD format to be threatened.

Having said that there still could be a futures market where films are sold on Memory Stick/Card size formats, and players the size of a pack of cards will play them.

The future for entertainment no matter what is getting smaller, but the capacity's are getting bigger, but best of all, it is all getting cheaper.

My forecast is for the first Memory Card/Stick Player to go on sale Bundled with a couple of films (or even classic Trilogies such as The Matrix), within the next 3 years.

Watch this space!

Posted: 09 Aug 2006, 23:55
by Fat Head
I think all physical media storage devices will go at some point as being used by the casual user. Whats the point in a media storage device when everything can be streamed or downloaded and played. People will have their film, music, family video collections on servers and can access instantly to their tv or media player in perfect quality. Not much of an option at the moment I know, high quality films take sometime to download nevermind your whole collection and even then you can only really watch it on a computer unless you go through the process of changing it to dvd format (again more time).

Posted: 10 Aug 2006, 02:46
by Impman
But for that everyone will have to have access to the net, and very fast broadband. The problem with downloading and watching live is one of bandwidth.

There is also the problem of mobility, I would much prefer to carry around with me a device that is only the size of a pack of cards, and have a folding screen (the technology for this is almost here). Then have to try and find somewhere that has a Hot Spot for downloading.

You can also take a smartcard type device practically anywhere in the world, and still be able to view a film. And to top it all, if the movies came on smartmedia/flashcards/memory sticks, you can take a lot more with you.

Posted: 10 Aug 2006, 06:32
by sldawgs
That is a good point. 2 Gig cards are already out there so a 4 gig/ 8 gig card doesn't seem that far in the future and could handle the 4.7 gigs that fit on a DVD. And that would also solve the problem of size, (i.e. you can't have a player smaller then a DVD disk. iPods already have video capability, just the really small screen sucks. maybe they will come up with a mini projector that will be able to project the image onto a wall or something.

Posted: 10 Aug 2006, 07:01
by Impman
Sounds like you think along the same lines as me Will!

Can't remember the film but there was a scene in it were a guy had this device that when he opened it, a circular shaped screen folded out from it. It may have been Aliens but don't quote me.

The technology is been developed that allows images to be projected onto paper thin screens, or a material similar to the plastic you get in film slides. So all you may need is a document wallet style briefcase to watch a film on screens up to 30'.

Whatever, is going to happen it is going to happen in the next ten years I am sure.

Posted: 10 Aug 2006, 07:06
by sldawgs
I have even heard of them working on something similar to a clothe that when attached to an electric signal would be able to show an image, so then you could just fold up your screen and stick it in your pocket. That would be cool.

Posted: 10 Aug 2006, 07:07
by bratzks
ill have to buy the blues brothers again?

Posted: 10 Aug 2006, 07:59
by sldawgs
I hear George Lucas is already working on a new version of the Star Wars films for release on memory cards. ;) :lol:

Posted: 10 Aug 2006, 10:15
by bratzks
sldawgs wrote:I hear George Lucas is already woring on a new version of the Star Wars films for release on memory cards. ;) :lol:
he would put them out on beta if he thought people would buy them. :starwars:

Posted: 10 Aug 2006, 11:08
by alan smithee
sldawgs wrote:That is a good point. 2 Gig cards are already out there so a 4 gig/ 8 gig card doesn't seem that far in the future and could handle the 4.7 gigs that fit on a DVD. And that would also solve the problem of size, (i.e. you can't have a player smaller then a DVD disk. iPods already have video capability, just the really small screen sucks. maybe they will come up with a mini projector that will be able to project the image onto a wall or something.
4GB SD cards are available now. With very minor compression, the data from a single-layer (one-sided) DVD can fit on such a card. (So can the data from a dual-layer disc, with enough compression.) There's software to essentially allow Palm devices to play DVDs by compressing them and storing the compressed data on SD cards. The loss in quality is presumably unnoticeable on the small screens.

Posted: 10 Aug 2006, 11:55
by Eric Draven
I think HD won't replace DVD anytime soon, and certainly not before a better medium is introduced. For starters, to truly use and appreciate HD, one needs an HD TV. This, of course, also necessitates the use of HD cable, as regular television just won't cut it. Companies will realize that most of america cannot afford to go out and buy a new HD TV, HD DVD player, and redo their collection of DVDs in HD. Plus, there really isn't much advantage of switching to HD. I mean, DVD video quality is very good to begin with, and if we are already getting a whole movie on one small disc, what good is it to come up with a disc that holds more? the only case where I can see HD's larger disc capacity really making a difference is with TV shows or series Box Sets, but I don't feel that's nearly a big enough market to warrant a complete conversion. Smaller, less damagable formats (like smartcards or memory sticks) are probably a much bigger threat to the DVD.

Posted: 10 Aug 2006, 23:29
by Impman
May be I should have added another option on the poll, like "Another Format", which would probably been a better bet.

As I can see a lot of you are thinking that the Smart Media/Flash Memory cards are looking a bigger threat.

Posted: 11 Aug 2006, 06:27
by sldawgs
the only restrictions right now is the cost of the cards. 4 GB cards are $250 to $300 right now, of course it probably only costs them like a $1.50 to make them.

Posted: 11 Aug 2006, 11:08
by alan smithee
sldawgs wrote:the only restrictions right now is the cost of the cards. 4 GB cards are $250 to $300 right now, of course it probably only costs them like a $1.50 to make them.
4GB SD card for $94.99

Posted: 11 Aug 2006, 11:57
by sldawgs
alan smithee wrote:
sldawgs wrote:the only restrictions right now is the cost of the cards. 4 GB cards are $250 to $300 right now, of course it probably only costs them like a $1.50 to make them.
4GB SD card for $94.99
Cool Beans :dance:

Posted: 17 Aug 2006, 21:03
by Impman
Remember a couple of years ago a 1Gb flash card would cost you over 250 quid if you could get one, you can now get a one gig card for less than 20 UK pounds! So the price comes down quickly, I would say although 4 gig cards are around the $100 mark now, by next year they will be closer to $50, probably even less!

Whatever, happens Flash media is going to be the new media of the future for everything, music, pictures, films ad infiniti

Posted: 17 Aug 2006, 21:52
by Eric Draven
It's that kind of mentality that allows the cancer-producing industry to survive. Of course we're all going to die someday, but do we have to pay for it? Do we actually have to throw hard-earned dollars on the counter and say, "Please, Mr. Merchant of Death, sir, please, sell me something that will stink up my breath and my clothes and fry my lungs?"

Posted: 22 Aug 2006, 13:17
by Impman
Sorry, I don't quite get your point?

Posted: 22 Aug 2006, 15:02
by F.N.G.
I think the point (as an excuseto use a Clerks quote) is: currently we are market led rather than consumer led, so we consume what the market tells us to consume. If we're told buy dvd, we buy it; if it's HD, we'll buy it, slowly at first, but then as the norm, then something else will come along. As long as we have vast amounts of expendable income and time on our hands this will continue to be the way.

Of course, when oil hits $500 a barrel and a loaf of bread costs $5 we'll have slightly different priorities.

Or something like that...

Posted: 22 Aug 2006, 16:21
by Mr.StayPuft
F.N.G. wrote: Of course, when oil hits $500 a barrel and a loaf of bread costs $5 we'll have slightly different priorities.
Image

Stay the course.

Posted: 22 Aug 2006, 20:09
by Steel Frog
I'm giving DVD 'til the count of ten to get off my lawn.

Posted: 22 Aug 2006, 21:24
by Eric Draven
F.N.G. wrote:I think the point (as an excuseto use a Clerks quote) is: currently we are market led rather than consumer led, so we consume what the market tells us to consume. If we're told buy dvd, we buy it; if it's HD, we'll buy it, slowly at first, but then as the norm, then something else will come along. As long as we have vast amounts of expendable income and time on our hands this will continue to be the way.

Of course, when oil hits $500 a barrel and a loaf of bread costs $5 we'll have slightly different priorities.

Or something like that...
You nailed it. We buy because we are told to buy. We (and I mean a general we) don't like to think for ourselves. Democracy is a sham because the general public doesn't really want to choose. Sure, we want to think we're choosing, but deep down, we want the big decisions to be made for us. Especially in terms of what we buy. People spend the money advertising the newest technology (HD) not because it makes things that much better (I'm not convinced it does) but because if they advertise, people will buy it. Period.

Posted: 23 Aug 2006, 01:43
by F.N.G.
Eric Draven wrote:
F.N.G. wrote:I think the point (as an excuseto use a Clerks quote) is: currently we are market led rather than consumer led, so we consume what the market tells us to consume. If we're told buy dvd, we buy it; if it's HD, we'll buy it, slowly at first, but then as the norm, then something else will come along. As long as we have vast amounts of expendable income and time on our hands this will continue to be the way.

Of course, when oil hits $500 a barrel and a loaf of bread costs $5 we'll have slightly different priorities.

Or something like that...
You nailed it. We buy because we are told to buy. We (and I mean a general we) don't like to think for ourselves. Democracy is a sham because the general public doesn't really want to choose. Sure, we want to think we're choosing, but deep down, we want the big decisions to be made for us. Especially in terms of what we buy. People spend the money advertising the newest technology (HD) not because it makes things that much better (I'm not convinced it does) but because if they advertise, people will buy it. Period.
If they build it, he will buy...